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There are of course a few aspects which you may wish to consider as regards to your betting when you have decided to subscribe to a tipster.  Of course everyone has their own opinions and guides to doing this and by no means is this a 'must do' as I am only giving you my own thoughts on what I would look for and do.


1)  Drawdown: This is basically the largest amount of points/money that have been lost from the highest point in their bank/results. So in layman's terms it resembles from the peak to the trough.

Let's say tipster A has had a longest losing run (LLR) of 17, you think I'll start with a bank of 30pts, that will be enough, they've only had a LLR of 17. You would be wrong to think that. Let's say you start with the tipster and sods law they go through a bad patch. This can happen at any time and this is all down to strike rates and probability. 

Example: I'll keep things simple and use 1pt stakes only.

Your first 12 bets lose = -12.00

You then have 2 winners 9/4 & 4/1 = +6.25

-12.00 + 6.25 =  -5.75 Your bank is now -5.75

Another losing of 10, your bank is now -15.75

2 winners follow 7/4 & 3/1 = +4.75

-15.75 +4.75 = -11.00 your bank is now -11.00

Losing run of 8 follows, your bank is now -19.00

3 winners in a row this time 6/5, 2/1 and 5/2 = +5.70 (3 winners in a row, things are looking up you think)

-19.00 +5.70 = -13.30. Your bank is now -13.30

The next 10 bets you only have 1 winner which was in the middle of the 10. It won at 2/1 which leaves you with another loss of -8.00. Your bank is now -21.30.

The inevitable happens and the tipster goes through another bad patch just like they did a few weeks ago or a few months ago (depending how frequent they give out bets) and has a losing run of 12. = -12.00

-12.00 & -21.30 = -33.30.

You have now gone bust from your bank of 30pts and yet you didn't even reach the LLR of 17.

So before the tipster starts to pick up they're results again and make some profit, the biggest drawdown has been -33.30pts or @£10 a bet £333.00.

The above example is obviously a rapid decline and in some cases the biggest drawdown may take months and months to come to light, but it must be checked and you must be prepared for it to happen if it does.


2) Strike rate (SR): So your tipster has a recognised SR over a period of a number of bets. One thing to consider is the probability of the LLR and what effect it will have. You cannot simply stop the sequence of losing runs and they can occur at anytime and the length of these will be determined by the SR the tipster has. 

Example: 50% SR may produce a LLR of at least 10 or 12 at some point.

                      30% SR may produce a LLR of at least 16 to 20 at some point.

                      20% SR may produce a LLR of at least 24 to 26 at some point.

The above percentages and LLR's will happen, whether it be next week, next month or next year, so you must be prepared to accept this as a fact of probability and even the tipster themselves cannot stop these LLR's because it is all relative to the SR.

I don't expect you to do this but you can it a try if you want. Toss a coin for a simple heads/tails outcome. The mathematics say you have a 50% of winning, at some point you will have a losing run of around 10 to 12 on either the heads or tails. It might take an hour, 2 hours or 10 hours of constant flicking, but it will happen.

Here is also a good example, So you give it a go, been there for an hour and it hasn't happened , your mate comes in, has a go and within 10 minutes achieves a losing run of heads of 10, yet you've been there for and hour and never manged it. So you both had the same SR according to the coin but your friend did it first, and there is a prime example of when a losing run can happen at anytime in which the number of it is all relative to the SR.

3) Bank: What size of bank do you need? Again this is a matter opinion and will differ from punter to punter and invariably tipster to tipster. Most tipsters will advise you on what size bank you will need to have if you are going to subscribe to them. Again, it would also be a good idea to find out what their biggest drawdown has been and multiply by 2 or even 3 to be safe as this figure may differ from theirs.

If you are successful and your bank has doubled , then some may prefer to withdraw their initial investment and simply start betting with the money they have accumulated. Some may set aside a 'reserve bank' meaning that only 2/3rds (or 3/4ths) are to start betting with and if anything should happen that puts the original bank in danger, then there is 1/3rd (or 1/4th) of reserve that may be called upon.  Whichever method you are doing and I know you here this everywhere, but you must protect your bank at all costs for the sake of longevity.

4) Staking: A lot has to be said about staking whether it be level stakes, variable, percentage of bank, ratchet staking, staking plans (Fibonacci, Martingale, Kelly method) to name a few. I'm not going to go into everyone of them, but whichever method you use or are advised to use,  remember to set your stakes in accordance with your bank! (see note 3) Don't get greedy and adjust your stakes just because you're on a winning run and likewise don't adjust your stakes to recover losses because you're on a losing spell. Set your staking and stick with it.

More to come soon!

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